ArbCom 2018 election

Discussion about the yearly Arbitration Committee elections.
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The Devil's Advocate
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Re: ArbCom 2018 election

Post by The Devil's Advocate » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:33 am

Someone has posted some interesting data about past votes. It shows that ArbCom elections since 2014 have involved over 6,000 unique voters. Carrite has already suggested this could mean his successful predictions in the past have been mostly luck. I will say, my particular method has generally proven to have the same level of accuracy before the mass notifications. Back in 2013 is when I did my first analysis of the voter guides. There, as every other year I analyzed, the guides predicted the top winner. The top seven in the guides all won that year. As usual the bottom of the winners had the most irregularity. LFaraone won a seat on lack of opposition rather than abundance of support with Beeblebrox squeaking into a one-year term by overcoming significant opposition with supports. Was too pre-occupied at the time to do one in 2014, but glancing at the guides, it does seem the top three were all the top support-getters in the guides. Courcelles arguably should have been the top due to getting more support, but both he and Weller had zero opposes with DGG getting one. The vote that time was also very close as the gap between Courcelles and Weller was just 36 votes. Low participation could have skewed it a little that year.

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